LlanoWatch

Did you know that Mayor Virdell & Brenton Lewis are Gambling $Millions with a 99.75% Chance of FAILURE?

Do you want a second water source for Llano? Of course! Do you want to make gold from iron? Of course. The real question for Llanoites is not what we want but how much will we gamble on a long shot - $7-8 Million?

Here are some views on the chance of success:

Robert Foster presented a detailed, 12-page analysis that concluded there was a 99.75% chance of failure for the Riley Mt Project. This analysis showed data, maps, and the calculations that generated the projection. BTW, Robert Foster: Graduated Magna Cum Laude in 1985 from Texas A&M with a BS in Geophysics; has 30 years experience as a geophysicist with Shell Oil Company; and is currently Chief Geophysicist for Shell Oil Co. responsible for all geophysical analysis and risking in North and South America with an annual exploration budget of $1.2 billion. AND, for no compensation, was willing to put his findings on paper.
Mike Virdell said we had "the best engineers that your money can buy"; "the best hydrologist and geologist that your money can buy"; and "John Burke is the best water consultant in Texas" have all placed the odds of success at 60-40. The analysis that created these odds has not been presented to council or citizens. The City responded to a Texas Public Information Act request for the analysis saying that it did not exist.
Mike Virdell and Brenton Lewis said they would get Robert Forster, John Burke, and other interested geologists and citizens together to discuss in more detail. That never happened.
Mike Virdell now calls the Riley Mt project a "fearsome thing" - but thinks we must gamble.
Alderman Allan Hopson also said it was a "big gamble" and we should rebid for a less expensive test hole to at least see if there is water. It will still cost $1,000,000 to know how much water. We won't really know if there is a sustainable amount of water, groundwater recharge, until a severe drought when we need it and start drawing.

Other considerations:

There isn't a project plan - typical of Llano government. Projects in Llano start with hand-waving and fanfare but no plan. "Just do it, we have talked about it enough." So, we signed a 50 year lease for $630,000 PLUS payment for the water. Now drill for $1,000,000. Then think about pumps, pipes, easements, and connection after drilling. We don't know how much the total project will cost or even if we can get easements for the pipe.
The engineer's estimate for drilling was $480,000 but the bid came in at a few dollars under $1,000,000. What other estimates are wrong by over 100%?
The water is radioactive but we won't know how radioactive until we drill. It is also very hard water and smells like sulfur.
The project is being called a secondary water source but it is really an emergency water source - only to be used when the water from the river is not available. We don't know the truth about that because Brenton Lewis says our water plant can't draw water when the level drops a few inches. We now know from the dredging project that isn't true.
We might not ever have a severe enough emergency. Meanwhile, the whole multi-million dollar project will likely sit idle taking significant resources to maintain for the rest of our lives or until it is abandoned. See article here.
There are much cheaper alternatives like boards at the upper dam. City Manager Brenton Lewis' presentation at a town hall meeting on water solutions had only titles - no information or costs.
We will have clean waste water from the sewer plant to, at least, water trees. It is drinkable.

LlanoWatch never suggests motives in an article and we aren't here. These are some interesting actions that could cause the Leverett lease to become void or abandoned and allow the Leveretts to keep the well at no cost:

There could be water but not sufficient for municipal use.
There was an apparent conflict of interest with Mayor Mikel Virdell's violation of Local Government Code §171.004. Mayor Virdell and Brenton Lewis explain that there isn't a conflict of interest because Clayton Leverett is not an employee but rather a contractor. This might be an income tax distinction but it is irrelevant when it comes to conflict of interest. That law is concerned with the financial relationship which is that conflict of interest exists if more than 10% of Clayton Leverett's income comes from Mayor Virdell's broker agreement.
Mayor Virdell has said that Clayton Leverett had a $20,000 geologist report done for a business opportunity. If the geologist report showed water, why did Clayton Leverett abandon the business opportunity? And why couldn't citizens and council see the report prior to signing the contract?
Two dredging companies have offered to dredge the river every year from now on FOR FREE. When presenting the proposal to council, one company said that they could dredge enough so that a well would not be necessary. The Mayor and council never pursued this proposal. Maybe dredging and upper river boards would be sufficient to get us through a severe drought.

Maybe it is time for a real workshop and real emergency plan.

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